- Bitcoin has held on to the $100k-level, regardless of $35M in brief liquidations and rising macro uncertainty
- Trump’s Fed Chair feedback and robust S&P rally added gasoline to crypto’s short-term bounce
Bitcoin’s [BTC] resilience has been on full show recently.
Regardless of a barrage of macro noise, price minimize odds, Trump’s Fed shakeup tease, and institutional reshuffling, BTC continues to be buying and selling above $100,000 on the charts.
And in doing so, it has stored FOMO on a low simmer with out flipping into euphoria.
Such a setup screams bullish continuation. You see, we’re midway by 2025, and the market’s leaning arduous into the rate-cut narrative – 97.4% odds for a minimize on the subsequent FOMC.
That’s a giant vote of confidence.
Nevertheless, right here’s the factor – What if the Fed doesn’t budge? What if the CPI ticks greater and inflation throws a wrench within the plan? Mid-June may get messy.
Quite the opposite, if BTC retains its energy, it may set the tone for a breakout heading into the second half of the 12 months.
Resilient labor market strengthens BTC’s macro setup
Could’s Non-Farm Payrolls report got here in stable. 139,000 jobs added vs. 125,000 anticipated, although barely beneath April’s 147,000.
The unemployment price stayed at 4.2%, highlighting a gradual however wholesome labor market.
Supply: Buying and selling Economics
Skeptics may argue that this robust employment knowledge contradicts the concept of a rate-cut pivot. In any case, why decrease borrowing prices when financial exercise is secure?
David Hernandez, Crypto Funding Specialist at 21Shares, informed AMBCrypto,
“BTC has discovered stable footing above the significant $100,000 assist stage, with every day spent above this stage strengthening it as a basis for future upward strikes.”
He added that Bitcoin’s means to carry by volatility displays rising institutional conviction. Particularly with the Fed funds market pricing in near-100% odds of a pause this June.
Merely put, secure labor knowledge means inflation pressures are manageable with out extra tightening. This provides the Fed room to pause price hikes. In flip, it additionally encourages funding flows into risk-on belongings like Bitcoin.
No surprises from the Fed, stable flooring for Bitcoin
Because the U.S. economic system continues to tame inflationary pressures with a string of “better-than-expected” knowledge, it wouldn’t be shocking if the Fed holds charges regular on the upcoming assembly.
Nevertheless, what about these 97.4% odds priced in? Effectively, that’s why Bitcoin’s resilience issues.
Whereas short-term volatility is inevitable as buyers reposition forward of the Fed’s resolution, BTC’s means to carry the $100k-level retains FOMO intact. It additionally validates its structural assist.
In actual fact, we’ve seen this dynamic play out repeatedly over the previous two weeks.
Regardless of BlackRock lowering its publicity, Bitcoin hasn’t flinched. Holding six figures within the face of institutional distribution underscores simply how stable BTC’s macro setup actually is.
Supply: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Trump’s Fed tease stirs the pot
In an surprising twist, Trump teased a brand new Fed Chair decide lately, regardless of Powell’s time period working till 2026.
Supply: The Kobeissi Letter
His feedback added gasoline to the speculative fireplace and helped push crypto markets up 2.5% over 24 hours – Alongside $35 million in brief liquidations.
But when that is simply hype—and never substance—there’s a danger this aid rally fades simply as quick.
If CPI stays contained and the Fed delivers the anticipated pause, this base at $100k will grow to be launchpad territory.
However, if the market’s pricing proves untimely, we may see a volatility shakeout earlier than the following leg.
Proper now, Bitcoin isn’t breaking down – It’s loading up. And, if the macro deck falls into place, the following breakout might not simply reclaim highs, however rewrite them.
