Kalshi Promo Code DEFI – Get $10 Free for Tonight’s State of the Union

President Trump delivers his first State of the Union of his second term tonight at 9 p.m. ET, and Kalshi has more prediction markets open than in previous events. Will he say “Discombobulator”? Will Barron Trump be in the chamber? Will the speech crack 100 minutes? There’s a contract for all of it — and over $13.2 million has already been traded across SOTU markets before the President even reaches the stage.

New users can still sign up with the Kalshi promo code DEFI before tonight’s address and get $10 free after just $10 in trades. This offer is active through February 2026.

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market available in all 50 states for politics, economics, and culture markets. For a side-by-side look at fees across platforms, see our prediction market fee comparison. Looking for alternatives? Browse our list of best prediction market apps.

• Sign up: Visit Kalshi and click “Sign Up.” You can register with Google, Apple, or email. Click on referral code. You should see DEFI in this field, which confirms the bonus is activated. If not, you can manually enter it.
• Verify your identity: Provide your date of birth, phone number, and location. Kalshi may request your SSN and a photo ID (driver’s license or passport) with a selfie. This is standard KYC verification across all regulated exchanges.
• Deposit funds: In your Kalshi wallet, click “Deposit Cash” and choose a payment method. Kalshi accepts debit cards, bank transfers, crypto, PayPal, Venmo, Google Pay, and Apple Pay. Minimum deposit to activate the bonus is $1.
• Trade $10 in contracts: Place your first trades. Once you hit $10 in trading volume, your $10 bonus is credited. SOTU markets are a natural starting point with contracts start as low as 8¢.

This promo is available to all new users. The bonus is not available in Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, and Ohio. For a full breakdown of how Kalshi works, see our Kalshi review.

What you can trade tonight

Once you’ve signed up with promo code DEFI and deposited funds, head to the Politics section on Kalshi. The SOTU markets are listed under the “SOTU” hub, with four main categories: word mentions, people mentions, attendance, and speech duration. New to prediction markets? Our guide on how prediction markets work covers the basics. With contracts starting as low as 1¢, the $10 bonus gives you room to spread across multiple markets.

What will Trump say during the State of the Union?

The word mention market is the biggest draw at $6,537,642 in volume, with traders pricing dozens of individual terms based on whether they’ll appear in the official transcript. “Trillion” leads the board at 93%, followed by “Trump” at 90%, “Hockey” at 89% (a nod to the Winter Olympics), and “AI / Artificial Intelligence” at 88%. These high-probability terms are what Kalshi traders call “bonds” — expensive to buy, small return, but near-certain payouts.

The real action is in the coin-flip range. “Fake News” is trading at 52% right now, but the term has resolved Yes in 23 of 32 prior Trump mention markets — a 72% historical hit rate, which suggests the current price may be undervaluing it for a formal address. “Ballroom” sits at 53%, “Cancer” at 49% (up 9 points today), and “Highest Inflation” at 48%.

These are the contracts where a few hours of research on Trump’s speech patterns can translate into an edge over the market. Use our prediction market calculator to size positions and compare expected value across contracts.

Who will Trump mention by name?

The people mentions market has pulled in $1,365,459 in volume. Biden leads at 93% — Trump has referenced his predecessor in nearly every major address. Maduro is at 86%, tracking with the administration’s Venezuela pressure campaign. Further down, Kash Patel surged 15 points to 60% (likely tied to his FBI role), while Charlie Kirk dropped 16 to 55%, the biggest decline in the people market. Putin at 55%, Bessent at 53%, and Witkoff at 51% are all genuine coin flips heading into tonight.

Who will attend the SOTU?

The attendance market is the deepest category at $4,852,582 in volume across 46 individual contracts. The near-locks include Ilhan Omar, John Fetterman, Pete Hegseth, and Scott Bessent, all at 98%. Supreme Court attendance is politically charged given the recent tariffs ruling — Brett Kavanaugh is at 96% and Amy Coney Barrett at 90%, but Neil Gorsuch is a more competitive 64%.

The most-watched attendance trade is Rep. Al Green (D-TX) at 64%. Green was ejected from the chamber during Trump’s joint session last year for interrupting the speech. Whether he shows up again tonight is one of the more interesting contracts in the attendance market. George Santos has spiked 25 points to 58%, the biggest mover in the market.

Barron Trump is at 70%, up 16 points. The separate combo market asking whether all five Trump children will attend has climbed to 71% Yes ($71,350 vol), up from 35% earlier this week — largely because Ivanka’s individual contract surged 10 points to 95%. New users can sign up with promo code DEFI and trade attendance markets before the 9 p.m. start.

How long will Trump speak?

The duration market ($386,890 vol) has 9 brackets from 60 minutes to 100+. Traders are forecasting the speech lands between 95 and 100 minutes. The 90-minutes-or-above contract is at 74¢ (up 11 points), and 95+ is at 62¢ (up 17 points today alone).

For context, Trump averaged 80 minutes and 20 seconds across his first-term State of the Union addresses, but his joint session to Congress in March 2025 ran 99 minutes and 32 seconds. The over on 90 minutes looks like solid value based on that track record. Sign up with the Kalshi promo code DEFI to trade duration markets and get $10 free after $10 in trades.

Read the rules before you trade

The Kalshi promo code DEFI is available to new users who are 18 or older and reside in the United States. After signing up with the code, depositing a minimum of $1, and placing $10 in trades, the $10 bonus credits to your account. The bonus must be rolled over once before withdrawal. This offer is not available in Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, and Ohio.

Before placing any trade, click “View full rules” on the contract page. Every Kalshi market has a rules summary that defines the resolution source, expiration time, and what qualifies as a valid outcome. For SOTU mention markets, this is especially important — contracts resolve against the official published transcript, not the live broadcast. A word spoken on air might not appear in the final transcript, or vice versa.

FAQ

What is the Kalshi promo code for the State of the Union?

Use promo code DEFI when signing up for Kalshi to get $10 free after your first $10 in trades. This code is active through February 2026 and works for all new users in eligible states.

What time does the State of the Union start?

President Trump is scheduled to address Congress at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 24, 2026. Kalshi’s SOTU markets will remain open for trading before and during the address, with mention markets settling after the official transcript is published.

How do SOTU mention markets settle on Kalshi?

Kalshi resolves mention markets using the official transcript of the address, not the live broadcast. The specific resolution source is defined in each market’s rules. Settlement typically occurs within hours of the transcript being published.

Can I trade SOTU markets live during the speech?

Yes. Kalshi supports live trading on political events. Prices will shift in real time as the speech progresses. You can buy, sell, or exit positions at any point before market close.

Odds as of Tuesday, February 24, 2026 at approximately 11:35 a.m. ET. All data sourced directly from Kalshi. Odds are subject to change.

Cheryle Shepstone

Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-check. Before DeFi Rate, she led content and growth strategy at Catena Media, where she helped shape content and revenue strategy for regulated and financial markets. She has 20 years of experience in research and marketing strategy