Bitcoin, after experiencing one of its steepest drops in the past day, has held the $90,000 threshold for four consecutive days.
This stability has renewed a measure of confidence in the market, supporting the view that a rebound remains possible. However, the market still shows significant hurdles ahead for BTC.
Supply cluster remains Bitcoin’s biggest threat
Bitcoin’s [BTC] biggest threat remains the supply clustered at two key levels. Supply levels are regions where sell orders accumulate, which can stall bullish momentum.
The closest supply cluster lies between $93,000 and $96,000, while the second cluster sits between $103,000 and $108,000. Bitcoin would face major resistance if it trades into either level because of the volatility concentrated at these zones.
Source: Glassnode
Failure to break through could send Bitcoin back below the $90,000 region, which it only recently reclaimed. A decisive close below $82,000, its True Mean Market Value, could even trigger a broader bearish market phase.
However, even if Bitcoin clears these supply levels, another major hurdle remains—a key determinant for its continued bullish momentum.
Short-Term Holders’ criteria
Bitcoin must still meet additional criteria on the chart to reset the market to some degree.
One key metric is the STH Cost Basis, the average price at which short‑term holders (wallets holding Bitcoin for 155 days or less) acquired their coins. This figure represents the aggregate cost basis for that cohort.
Source: Glassnode
According to Glassnode, this level currently sits at $109,800. Historically, price trading above this level has supported stability and opened the door for further rallies.
Moving below it, however, suggests lingering selling pressure from short-term holders, which could weigh on the market.
This means that after addressing the $108,000 supply zone, Bitcoin must still climb above $109,800 to regain stability and unlock stronger bullish potential.
Global indicator warns of volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to signal rising volatility in global markets.
When this metric rises, as it is now, it typically influences markets such as the S&P 500, which has historically moved in tandem with Bitcoin.
Source: AlphractalSuch volatility often triggers short-term market declines, which could be the case here. Market analyst Joao Wedson, however, warned that it could escalate into something more severe.
“In past major bubbles [like the dotcom bubble], the VIX tended to rise right before things burst… Big Tech and AI companies are more stretched than ever.”
A sharp crash of this magnitude could hit risk assets harder, potentially pushing Bitcoin into a confirmed bearish phase.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin must overcome two key market clusters on the chart between $93,000 and $108,000, according to liquidation heatmap data.
- Global market uncertainty continues to weigh on Bitcoin as broader risk sentiment weakens.
